Cribbage Probability & Odds: Complete Reference Tables

Q: "What is the probability of getting a 29 hand in cribbage?"

"The probability of a 29 hand (5-5-5-J with the remaining 5 as starter, jack matching starter suit) is approximately 1 in 216,580 deals. In a game averaging 20 deals per hour, a casual player would expect to see a 29 hand roughly once every 10,000+ hours of play — making it genuinely rare."

Q: "What is the average cribbage hand score?"

"A random 4-card cribbage hand (after discarding) averages approximately 4.77 points before counting the starter card. After adding the starter, the average hand value rises to about 7.5–8 points. The dealer gains an additional ~4.5 points on average from the crib, making the dealer position worth roughly 2–3 points per deal."

Q: "What is the most common cribbage hand score?"

"Zero points is the most common single hand score in cribbage — a surprisingly large proportion of 4-card combinations score nothing before the starter card. However, when accounting for the starter, the mode shifts toward 4–6 point hands. A score of exactly 0 after starter occurs in roughly 15% of hands."

Q: "What is the probability of a flush in cribbage?"

"With 6 cards dealt, the probability that all 4 cards you keep are the same suit is approximately 4.2%. In the crib, a 4-card flush does not score — only a 5-card flush (all four crib cards plus starter, same suit) counts, which is much rarer at around 0.8%."

Q: "What are the impossible scores in cribbage?"

"The impossible cribbage scores are 19, 25, 26, and 27. These point totals cannot be achieved by any valid 4-card hand plus starter combination. The number 19 is so infamous that cribbage players often joke 'I have nineteen' to mean a zero-point hand — since 19 is impossible, it means nothing scored."

Q: "How often does the starter card make a pair with someone's hand?"

"The starter card matches any specific rank with probability 3/46 (the remaining cards after dealing 12). With 4 ranks in your hand, the probability the starter pairs at least one of your cards is roughly 25–30%, depending on whether you hold pairs already."

Quick-reference cribbage probability tables — starter card odds by rank, flush chances, nobs probability, 29-hand odds, crib expected values by discard, and pegging probabilities.

Updated: April 23, 2026 · 6 min read

By the CribbageBox Editorial Team · Rules & strategy verified against ACC standards

Cribbage Probability & Odds Reference

Quick answer: The average cribbage hand scores ~4.77 points before the starter and ~7.5 points after. A 29 hand occurs once every ~216,580 deals. Ten-value cards appear as the starter 30.8% of the time.

This page compiles the key probability figures every serious cribbage player should understand — not to memorize exact numbers, but to internalize the relative weights that drive correct decisions.

Starter Card Probabilities

The starter (cut) card is drawn from the remaining 46 cards after 12 are dealt (6 to each of 2 players). These probabilities apply to 2-player cribbage.

Probability by Rank

Starter Rank	Cards Remaining	Probability	Significance
Ace	4	8.7%	Low impact on most hands
2	4	8.7%	Low impact
3	4	8.7%	Low impact
4	4	8.7%	Helps runs with A-2-3
5	4	8.7%	Transforms ten-card hands dramatically
6	4	8.7%	Pairs with 9s for fifteens
7	4	8.7%	Pairs with 8s for fifteens
8	4	8.7%	Pairs with 7s for fifteens
9	4	8.7%	Pairs with 6s for fifteens
10	4	8.7%	Makes fifteens with 5s
Jack	4	8.7%	Makes fifteens with 5s + nobs potential
Queen	4	8.7%	Makes fifteens with 5s
King	4	8.7%	Makes fifteens with 5s

Note: All ranks are equally likely as the starter, since the deck is uniformly shuffled. The strategic importance differs, not the raw probability.

Ten-Value Cards as Starter

Category	Cards	Probability
Any ten-value card (10, J, Q, K)	16	30.8%
A 5 as starter	4	7.7%
A face card (J, Q, K)	12	23.1%
A jack specifically	4	7.7%

The 30.8% figure is why 5s are so valuable: nearly a third of all cuts deliver an immediate fifteen for any 5-holder.

Nobs and Nibs (His Heels / His Nobs)

Event	Probability	Points
Dealer cuts a jack (nibs/heels)	4/46 = 8.7%	2 pts to dealer
Holding a jack that matches starter suit	1/4 suits = 25% (per jack held)	1 pt (nobs)
Holding any jack, starter matches one	~23% if 1 jack held	1 pt

Hand Score Distribution

This section covers two related distributions: average hand values by hand type (including the starter), and the raw frequency distribution of 4-card hands before the starter. Values are approximate based on combinatorial analysis.

Average Expected Hand Value by Keep Type

Hand Type	Avg Hand Points (incl. starter)	Notes
All random (no optimization)	~4.77 before starter, ~7.5 with	Baseline
Pairs + potential fifteens	8–10	E.g., 5-5 with ten-cards
Double runs (e.g., 4-5-5-6)	10–12	Strong scoring patterns
Three-card run, 1 matching card	7–9	Depends on cut
Near-flush hand	6–8	Flush bonus only on same-suit cut
Maximum possible (29 hand)	29	5-5-5-J, matching-suit 5 starter

Score Frequency Distribution — 4-Card Hand Before Starter (Approximate)

These figures reflect the raw distribution of all possible 4-card hand combinations, before the starter card is added. With optimal discarding and the starter, the distribution shifts right — see Cribbage Math for post-starter averages.

Score	Approximate Frequency
0	~15%
2	~18%
4	~17%
6	~13%
8	~11%
10	~7%
12	~6%
14–16	~8%
17–20	~3%
21–28	~2%
29	~0.00046%

Zero is the single most common pre-starter score, underscoring how much discarding decisions matter — and how dramatically the starter card elevates expected hand value.

Flush Probabilities

Flush Type	Probability	Scoring
4-card hand flush (kept cards same suit)	~4.2% of dealt hands	4 pts (hand only, not crib)
5-card hand flush (4 hand + starter match)	~1.1%	5 pts
4-card crib flush	Does not score	—
5-card crib flush (all 5 cards same suit)	~0.8%	5 pts

A 4-card flush in the crib does not score — only a full 5-card flush (all four crib cards plus the starter, all the same suit) counts in the crib. This is a common rules misunderstanding.

Pegging Probabilities

Fifteen on First Two Cards Played

Lead Card Value	Opponent Plays	Probability of Immediate 15-2
5	Any ten-card	30.8%
10/J/Q/K	A 5	7.7%
6	A 9	7.7%
7	An 8	7.7%
A	Needs 14 (impossible as single card)	0%

This is why leading a 5 is dangerous: nearly 1 in 3 opponent responses scores 15-2 immediately.

Probability of Pairing a Lead

If opponent leads any specific rank, and you hold a card of that rank:

Cards of that rank remaining in deck	Probability you were dealt one (rough)
3 remaining	~15% (given random 6-card deal)
2 remaining	~10%

In practical terms: for any specific rank opponent leads, you hold a pairing card roughly 15–25% of the time depending on how many of that rank remain.

Running Count Reaching 31

The probability of reaching exactly 31 with 2 cards (after an initial count): depends heavily on the running count. At a count of 21–26, a single card can potentially reach 31. The most common exact-31 sequences involve ten-cards and small cards.

Crib Expected Values

Crib by Discard Type (Dealer’s Own Crib)

Discard to Own Crib	Expected Crib Points
5-5	5.7
5-J (any fifteen combo)	4.5
5-10/Q/K	4.2
Any pair	~4.0–4.5
7-8	3.8
6-9	3.6
A-2	2.5
Wide low cards (A-K, 2-9)	2.0–2.5

Crib by Discard Type (Opponent’s Crib, Cost to You)

Discard to Opponent’s Crib	Expected Opponent Crib Points Added
5-5	+5.7 (avoid at all costs)
5-J/Q/K/10	+4.2–4.5
Any pair	+4.0
Cards totaling 5 (A-4, 2-3)	+3.5
Cards totaling 15 (7-8, 6-9)	+3.5
Single 5	+3.1
Wide, non-synergistic cards (A-K)	2.0–2.3

The 29 Hand: Full Probability Breakdown

The 29 hand requires:

Being dealt three 5s and the jack of one of the other three suits
The remaining 5 (matching the jack’s opposite suit) appearing as the starter

Step	Probability
Being dealt exactly 3 fives and 1 jack from 52-card deck (6 cards)	~1 in 2,825
Starter card being the specific remaining 5	1/46
Combined (29 hand from a deal)	~1 in 216,580

At 20 deals per hour, 3 hours per week, this is roughly once every 700 years of play — a once-in-a-lifetime event, and often a once-in-a-lifetime event even for tournament regulars.

For the full story on the 29 hand, see The 29 Hand in Cribbage.

Impossible Scores Quick Reference

These scores cannot be achieved by any valid 4-card hand + starter combination:

Impossible Score	Why
19	No combination of fifteens, pairs, runs, and flushes totals 19
25	Same — gap in achievable values
26	Same
27	Same

All other values from 0 to 29 are achievable. Saying “I have nineteen” in cribbage is shorthand for a 0-point hand.

See Impossible Cribbage Scores for the full explanation.

Dealer Advantage

The crib gives the dealer a statistical edge each round:

Metric	Value
Average crib value (random discards)	~4.5 pts
Dealer net advantage per round	~2–3 pts
Estimated dealer win rate over many games	~53–55%

This is why deal alternates in standard cribbage — the crib advantage is significant enough that even alternation doesn’t fully equalize, though it gets close over many deals.

For the strategic implications of these numbers, see Discard Strategy and Cribbage Math.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the probability of getting a 29 hand in cribbage?

The probability of a 29 hand (5-5-5-J with the remaining 5 as starter, jack matching starter suit) is approximately 1 in 216,580 deals. In a game averaging 20 deals per hour, a casual player would expect to see a 29 hand roughly once every 10,000+ hours of play — making it genuinely rare.

What is the average cribbage hand score?

A random 4-card cribbage hand (after discarding) averages approximately 4.77 points before counting the starter card. After adding the starter, the average hand value rises to about 7.5–8 points. The dealer gains an additional ~4.5 points on average from the crib, making the dealer position worth roughly 2–3 points per deal.

What is the most common cribbage hand score?

Zero points is the most common single hand score in cribbage — a surprisingly large proportion of 4-card combinations score nothing before the starter card. However, when accounting for the starter, the mode shifts toward 4–6 point hands. A score of exactly 0 after starter occurs in roughly 15% of hands.

What is the probability of a flush in cribbage?

With 6 cards dealt, the probability that all 4 cards you keep are the same suit is approximately 4.2%. In the crib, a 4-card flush does not score — only a 5-card flush (all four crib cards plus starter, same suit) counts, which is much rarer at around 0.8%.

What are the impossible scores in cribbage?

The impossible cribbage scores are 19, 25, 26, and 27. These point totals cannot be achieved by any valid 4-card hand plus starter combination. The number 19 is so infamous that cribbage players often joke ‘I have nineteen’ to mean a zero-point hand — since 19 is impossible, it means nothing scored.

How often does the starter card make a pair with someone's hand?

The starter card matches any specific rank with probability 3/46 (the remaining cards after dealing 12). With 4 ranks in your hand, the probability the starter pairs at least one of your cards is roughly 25–30%, depending on whether you hold pairs already.