Best Hands to Keep in Cribbage: EV Rankings for Common Holds
Which cards to keep in cribbage for maximum expected value — ranked holdings for the most common dealt configurations, with EV figures and discard logic.
Best Hands to Keep in Cribbage
This guide covers the practical question: when you look at your 6 dealt cards, which 4 should you keep?
For the theoretical maximum hands, see Best Cribbage Hands. This page focuses on real dealt configurations and the expected value of common holding decisions.
The Principle: Multi-Pattern Hands Win
The best holds create scoring across multiple combinations simultaneously. A hand that scores fifteens and a run and a pair is far more valuable than one that scores only one type of combination.
Tier 1 hand quality: Scores 10+ points before the starter, improves with many possible starters
Tier 2: Scores 6–9 points before the starter with good improvement potential
Tier 3: Scores 4–5 points with decent upside
Weak: Scores 0–2 points with limited improvement room
Top Holdings by Expected Value
S-Tier: The 5-5-5 Combinations
| Hold | Base Score | Avg with Starter | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-5-5-J | ~14 | ~15–16 | Best possible; any 10-value starter adds nobs potential |
| 5-5-5-10 | ~12 | ~13–14 | Strong but no nobs potential |
| 5-5-J-Q | ~8 | ~10–11 | High upside with 10/5 starters |
| 5-5-10-J | ~8 | ~10 | Similar upside |
Fives are the king of cribbage. Every face card makes a fifteen with a 5. Two 5s make a pair and two fifteens (with any 10-value card). Three 5s score 6 points in pairs alone before a single fifteen is counted.
A-Tier: Connected Runs with Fifteens
| Hold | Base Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 6-7-8-9 | 4 (run) | Improves to 8 with 5/6/7/8/9/10 starter; very broad upside |
| 5-6-7-8 | 4 (run) | Any 4, 9, or 10-value card adds fifteens |
| 4-5-6-6 | 8 | Double run + fifteens; very strong |
| 5-6-6-7 | 8 | Double run with fifteens |
| 7-7-8-8 | 4 (pairs + partial fifteen) | Becomes 24 with 6, 7, 8, or 9 starter |
| 6-6-7-8 | 8 | Double run of 3 + pair + fifteens |
B-Tier: Runs Without Embedded Fifteens
| Hold | Base Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4-5-6 | 8 (double run w/ 5) | 5 adds fifteens to the run; excellent |
| 2-3-4-5 | 8 | Strong but lower ceiling than 3-4-5-6 |
| 6-7-8-10 | 3 (run) | Improves with any 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, or J |
| A-2-3-3 | 8 | Double run; A-2-3 is a valid run |
| J-Q-K-A | 0 | Run of 3 (J-Q-K) + A; minimal fifteens potential |
C-Tier: Pairs with Fifteens Potential
| Hold | Base Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 10-5 + two other cards | 2+ | A lonely pair of 10s or 5+10 still contributes |
| K-K-5-anything | 4 | Two fifteens + pair if last card helps |
| A-A-anything | 2 | Pair of aces is low but plays well with 3-2-4 runs |
The Discard Decision: Dealer vs. Pone
Your hold isn’t made in isolation — you must also consider what you’re discarding.
As Dealer (You Own the Crib)
You benefit from good discards to your own crib. The crib averages ~4.5 points from neutral discards, but you can boost it significantly:
- Give your crib a 5 — if you have two 5s, sometimes one stays in your hand; sometimes one boosts the crib
- Give matching suited cards — pairs and connecting cards in the crib can score
- Retain your highest-EV hand even if the crib gets slightly worse
The decision: hand EV + crib EV combined, not just hand EV alone.
As Pone (Opponent Owns the Crib)
You want to minimize what you give the dealer’s crib. Rules of thumb:
| Discard Category | Quality (for you) |
|---|---|
| K-Q or K-J (disconnected) | ✅ Best — high value, no fifteens together, no run potential |
| K-9 or Q-9 | ✅ Good |
| Pair of anything except 5s | ⚠️ Acceptable |
| 5 + anything | ❌ Avoid — 5 is very crib-friendly |
| Two cards that make 15 (5+10, 6+9, 7+8) | ❌ Avoid — gifts 2 pts to crib immediately |
| Two connecting cards (6-7, 7-8) | ❌ Avoid — sets up runs |
The penalty for giving the dealer a 5 is approximately 1.0–1.5 expected points compared to giving a disconnected face card.
Common Dealt-Hand Decisions
You’re Dealt: 5-5-6-7-8-K
Keep: 5-5-6-7 or 5-6-7-8?
- 5-5-6-7: Base score = 4 (pair) + 4 (run of 3: 5-6-7) + 4 fifteens = ~12 pts. Run of 4 with 8 or 4 starter.
- 5-6-7-8: Base score = 4 (run of 4) + 4 fifteens = ~8 pts. But improves heavily with 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 starters.
Best keep: 5-5-6-7 (higher base, pair adds robustness). Discard 8-K to your crib.
You’re Dealt: A-2-3-4-5-6
Keep: A-2-3-4 (run of 4) or 3-4-5-6 (run of 4 with 5)?
- A-2-3-4: Base = 4 pts run. Limited fifteen potential.
- 3-4-5-6: Base = 4 pts run + 2 fifteens (5+10-value starters) = 6+ pts potential. 5 improves dramatically.
Best keep: 3-4-5-6. The 5 makes all the difference.
You’re Dealt: 7-8-9-J-Q-K
Keep: 7-8-9 + J (three of the four tens give fifteen with…wait, 7+8=15, 7+J=17, 8+9=17 — the run scores, not fifteens)
Keep: J-Q-K-9 (run of J-Q-K + 9)?
- 7-8-9-J: Base = 3 (run) + 2 (15: 7+8) = 5. Improves with 6 or 10 starters.
- J-Q-K-9: Base = 3 (run J-Q-K). Little fifteen potential. 9 adds nothing without a 6.
Best keep: 7-8-9-J. The fifteen is immediate; keep what already scores.
Key Principles Summary
- 5s are almost always worth keeping — they interact with more cards than any other rank
- Double/triple runs beat simple runs — a pair inside a run is worth more than extending the run
- Starter card adds ~3 pts on average — factor upside potential into close decisions
- As pone, keep high disconnected pairs for your crib discard — don’t dump garbage on yourself
- As dealer, your crib is half the equation — sometimes the right hold is the one that also makes a better crib
For mathematical deep dives on EV tables and discard probabilities, see Cribbage Probability Tables and Discard Strategy.