Cribbage Discard Strategy

Every hand of cribbage starts with the same critical decision: which four cards do you keep, and which two do you discard to the crib? This guide covers the principles, patterns, and calculations that lead to optimal discards.

The Fundamentals

From six dealt cards, you must choose a four-card hand and a two-card discard. There are 15 possible combinations, and the difference between the best and worst choice can be 4-6 points or more.

What Determines the Best Discard?

1. Hand value — How many points do your four kept cards score?
2. Starter card potential — How much could the cut card improve your hand?
3. Crib value — How much do your two discards contribute to the crib?
4. Crib ownership — Is it YOUR crib (add value) or opponent’s (minimize value)?
5. Board position — Should you play for safety or gamble?

Discarding to Your Own Crib (Dealer)

As dealer, the crib is yours. You want to maximize total expected points (hand + crib).

Best Cards to Send to Your Crib

The Sacrifice Calculation

Sometimes it’s worth weakening your hand slightly to improve the crib:

Example: You hold 4-5-5-6-7-J

• Keep 4-5-6-7 (8 points base), discard 5-J to crib (~5-6 crib value)
• Keep 5-5-6-7 (6 points base), discard 4-J to crib (~2-3 crib value)
• Keep 4-5-5-6 (8 points base), discard 7-J to crib (~2-3 crib value)

The first option (keep 4-5-6-7, crib 5-J) gives the best total expected value.

Discarding to Opponent’s Crib (Pone)

As pone, your discard goals reverse: keep maximum hand value while starving the opponent’s crib.

Safest Discards to Opponent’s Crib

Dangerous Discards to Opponent’s Crib

The Pone’s Dilemma

Sometimes you must choose between a good hand and a safe crib discard:

Example: You hold 5-5-6-7-Q-K (opponent’s crib)

• Keep 5-5-6-7 (8 points), discard Q-K to crib (safe, ~3.5 crib) → Best choice
• Keep 5-6-7-Q (7 points), discard 5-K to crib (dangerous, ~4.5 crib)
• Keep 5-5-Q-K (4 points), discard 6-7 to crib (risky, ~5+ crib)

As pone, you’d keep 5-5-6-7 — best hand AND safest crib discard.

Common Discard Situations

The “Keep or Break” Dilemma

You hold: 3-4-5-5-6-Q (your crib)

• Keep 3-4-5-6 (10 points) + 5-Q to crib
• Keep 3-4-5-5 (8 points) + 6-Q to crib
• Keep 4-5-5-6 (12 points) + 3-Q to crib

Keep 4-5-5-6 (12 points base) — even though 3-Q is a weaker crib discard, the 4-point hand improvement outweighs it.

General rule: A 2+ point hand improvement beats crib optimization in most situations.

The “Two Good Hands” Problem

You hold: 5-5-J-J-Q-K

• Keep 5-5-J-Q (8 points), J-K to crib
• Keep 5-5-J-K (8 points), J-Q to crib
• Keep 5-J-J-Q (7 points), 5-K to crib
• Keep 5-5-J-J (8 points), Q-K to crib

Multiple keeps give 8 points, so compare cribs: Keep 5-5-J-J (pair of 5s + pair of Js) and discard Q-K. The Q-K is a safe discard even to opponent’s crib, and the double-pair hand has strong cut potential.

The “Nothing Works” Hand

You hold: A-3-7-8-9-K (opponent’s crib)

• Keep 7-8-9-A (3 points), 3-K to crib — decent hand + safe crib
• Keep 7-8-9-3 (3 points), A-K to crib — same hand + safest crib
• Keep A-3-7-8 (0 points), 9-K to crib — weak hand, semi-safe crib

Keep 7-8-9-3 or 7-8-9-A for the run, discard A-K (safest possible to opponent). With bad hands, protect against the crib and hope for a good cut.

Discard Mathematics

The Cut Card Factor

When evaluating keeps, consider how many of the 46 remaining cards improve your hand:

• Pairs: If you hold a pair, 2 cards in the deck make three-of-a-kind
• Fifteens: Count how many cuts create new fifteen combinations
• Runs: Count how many cuts extend or create runs
• Flush: If your 4 cards are suited, any same-suit cut adds 1 point (or 4 for crib)

Quick Mental Math

For each potential keep, estimate:

• Base value (count it exactly)
• Good cuts (how many of 46 cards add 2+ points)
• Great cuts (how many add 4+ points)
• Dead cuts (how many add 0 points)

A hand with 20 good cuts and 10 great cuts is better than one with 12 good cuts and 15 great cuts — consistency matters.

Board Position and Discarding

When Ahead — Play Safe

• Choose the discard that gives the most consistent hand value
• Don’t gamble on a big cut when your base value is already good
• Prioritize denying opponent’s crib over maximizing your own hand

When Behind — Go for Variance

• Choose keeps that have the highest ceiling, even if the floor is lower
• Accept a riskier crib discard if it means keeping a hand that could score 16+
• The expected value of a Hail Mary play exceeds the expected value of slow, safe scoring when you’re far behind

Practice Drill

Deal yourself 6 cards and work through all 15 possible keeps. For each:

1. Calculate base hand value
2. Estimate how many cuts improve the hand significantly
3. Evaluate the crib discard (good or bad?)
4. Score each option: Hand Value + Estimated Cut Improvement ± Crib Factor
5. Choose the best overall option

Do this 10 times and you’ll significantly improve your discard intuition.

Continue building your strategic toolkit:

• Pegging strategy in depth
• Beginner fundamentals
• Advanced endgame theory