Cribbage Discard Advisor — Find Your Best Keep

Free online cribbage discard advisor. Select your 6 dealt cards, choose dealer or pone, and instantly see the optimal 4-card keep ranked by expected value.

· 2 min read
By Garrett Pegg · Reviewed against ACC standards

Cribbage Discard Advisor

Select the 6 cards that were dealt to you, set your role (dealer or pone), and click Analyze Discard to see all 15 possible keeps ranked by expected value.

You are:
0 / 6 cards selected

Click exactly 6 cards that were dealt to you.

How to Use the Discard Advisor

  1. Set your role — Dealer or Pone. This affects the crib adjustment calculation.
  2. Click 6 cards — Select the exact 6 cards that were dealt to you.
  3. Click Analyze — The tool evaluates all 15 possible keeps and ranks them.
  4. Read the results — The top row (green) is your optimal keep. The table shows why.

Understanding the Results

Hand EV is calculated exactly: the tool scores your 4-card hand against every one of the 46 remaining starter cards and averages the results. This is the mathematically correct expected hand value.

Crib Adjustment is an estimate based on the two cards you’re discarding:

  • As Dealer, a positive crib adjustment means your discard helps your crib
  • As Pone, a negative crib adjustment means your discard hurts (helps opponent’s crib)

Total EV = Hand EV + Crib Adjustment. This is the number to optimize.

When to Deviate from the Advisor

The advisor maximizes long-run expected value, which is mathematically correct. However, real games occasionally justify deviating:

  • When you’re far behind: Take the higher-variance keep (bigger potential, more risk)
  • When you’re far ahead: Take the safer keep (lower hand EV but less risky discard)
  • When opponent is near 121: Prioritize pegging cards over hand score

For the core discard principles, read the Discard Strategy guide. To understand why certain discards score what they do, see Cribbage Scoring.

Ready to practice your discard decisions in a real game? Play free against our AI.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the cribbage discard advisor work?
The advisor evaluates all 15 possible 4-card keeps from your 6 dealt cards. For each keep, it calculates the Hand EV (average score across all 46 possible starter cards) and adds a Crib Adjustment (estimated points gained or lost from your 2-card discard based on whether you’re dealer or pone). The total EV is ranked to show you the best keep.
What is Hand EV in cribbage?
Hand EV (Expected Value) is the average number of points your 4-card hand will score across all possible starter cards. For example, if your hand scores 4 pts with some starters, 6 pts with others, and 8 pts with others, the Hand EV is the weighted average across all 46 remaining cards in the deck.
What is the Crib Adjustment?
The Crib Adjustment estimates how many points your 2-card discard adds (if you’re dealer) or costs (if you’re pone) to the crib. Discarding a 5 and a face card is great for dealer (+7 or more) but catastrophic for pone (-7 or more). The adjustment is an estimate based on the pair, fifteen, and connectivity value of your discard.
Should I always follow the advisor's recommendation?
The advisor maximizes expected value mathematically, which is the right long-run strategy. However, in real games you might adjust for board position (take a safer hand when ahead, a higher-variance hand when behind) or for specific knowledge about your opponent. The advisor is a learning tool and optimal baseline, not a rigid rule.
Why doesn't the crib adjustment account for opponent's discard?
The advisor can’t know what your opponent will discard. The crib adjustment uses a formula based only on your 2 discard cards. The actual crib value depends on both players’ discards plus the starter — the advisor gives the best estimate with available information.

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